Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
